What Would Warren Buffett Say?
He bet $1M that an index fund would beat hedge funds, and won. See how your portfolio scores against the Oracle's rules, and what your fees cost.
Where your Oracle score comes from
Credits for what you hold, less penalties for speculation, fund fees, trading and idle cash, add up to the score above.
What your fund fees cost over 30 years
The money you hold in funds, at your MER and at a 0.1% index fund, grown at FP Canada’s US equity return before fees. The shaded gap is what the fee costs you.
Your mix next to his 90/10
The instruction in his will for his wife's inheritance: 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund, 10% in short-term government bonds. Your cash stands in for the bonds.
What he'd have you do next
Fee drag heads the list, the one number he says you control.
The rules this tool applies
The Buffett rules applied
For everyone who isn't a full-time analyst: a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, bought consistently, held forever. His will directs 90% of the money he leaves his wife into exactly that. Fees are the enemy: he won a public $1M bet that the index would beat a basket of hedge funds over 10 years. Never invest in what you don't understand (his circle of competence), and treat volatility as opportunity, not risk.
Scoring
Your four amounts are first scaled to shares of 100%, so they need not add up. Then, on a scale of 0 to 100:
- Broad index funds: 1 point for each 1% of the portfolio.
- Cash, up to 10%: 1 point for each 1%, standing in for the short-term government bonds in his 90/10.
- Individual stocks: 0.35 of a point for each 1%, partial credit for picks inside your circle of competence.
- Speculation (crypto, options, hot tips): no credit, and 2 points off for each 1% above 5% of the portfolio.
- Fund fees: 50 points off for each percentage point of MER above 0.5%, times the share you hold in funds. A 1.5% MER costs 50 points when everything is in funds, and 20 when 40% is.
- Trading: 5 points off for monthly, 30 for weekly or more.
- Cash above 25%: 0.5 of a point off for each 1%. He keeps plenty in reserve himself; the point is having a plan for it.
The total is rounded to whole points and held between 0 and 100: 75 and up is green (his kind of portfolio), 40–74 gold, under 40 red. A portfolio that is all broad index funds, or 90% index funds and 10% cash, with an MER of 0.5% or less and rare trading, scores 100. The score chart shows each rule's points in this order; when the penalties outweigh the credits, a grey step lifts the total to the floor of 0.
What your fund fees cost
Only money in funds pays an MER, so the fee chart follows your index-fund share of the portfolio, plus the same share of each monthly addition. That money grows for 30 years at 6.4% a year before fees, the FP Canada Projection Assumption Guidelines figure for US equities (the S&P 500 he recommends; FP Canada figures as of July 2026): once less your MER, and once less the 0.1% of a broad index fund. Each month the balance grows by (1 + return − MER)^(1/12), and the addition lands at month end. The shaded gap at year 30 is what your fee costs, in nominal (future) dollars; today's dollars divide it by (1 + 2.1%)^30, FP Canada's inflation assumption. Stocks, speculation and cash pay no fund fee and grow the same either way, so they drop out of the gap; each bucket grows on its own, with no rebalancing between them. Trading costs and taxes are not modelled.
Your mix next to his 90/10
The bar shows your scaled shares next to the instruction in his will for his wife's inheritance: 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund, 10% in short-term government bonds. Your cash stands in for the bonds, a simplification: a savings account and a short-term bond fund are not the same thing.
The fine print
This is an educational parody applying Warren Buffett's well-documented public philosophy to your numbers. All verdict lines are paraphrases in his style, not real quotes. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Warren Buffett. For actual advice, talk to a licensed professional.
Common questions
What does Warren Buffett recommend for regular investors?
A low-cost S&P 500 index fund bought consistently and held for decades. His instruction for his own estate: 90% S&P 500 index fund, 10% short-term government bonds.
How much do investment fees really matter?
At a 2% MER (typical for Canadian mutual funds), roughly 40% of your final balance over 40 years goes to fees versus a 0.1% index fund. Buffett considers fee minimization the single most controllable factor in returns.
What is Buffett's circle of competence?
Only invest in businesses you understand. If you can't explain how it makes money in a sentence, it's speculation, and it belongs in the small 'fun money' bucket, if anywhere.